March 29, 2025 Weekly Newsletter
Florida's Agricultural Land at Risk:
A Closer Look at the
Agriculture 2040/2070 Report
Last week in this newsletter, we said, "Florida is already projected to lose 2.2 million acres of agricultural land by 2070 under current development patterns." This sounds like a lot!
How big is 2.2 million acres? It is 3,437.5 square miles. It is larger than the states of Delaware and Rhode Island combined and about the size of Yellowstone National Park. Indian River County is ~617 sq mi, so 2.2 million acres would be more than five times the size of our county.
This is a lot of land that will be changed from ag to something else (residential, commercial, industrial, etc.) by 2070. Several people wondered where we got this stat, and I wanted to go a little deeper on it because we sure didn't make it up!
This information comes from the "Agriculture 2040/2070" report, a joint project released in April 2024 by 1000 Friends of Florida and the University of Florida's Center for Landscape Conservation Planning. The report provides a detailed understanding of how population growth, development patterns, and sea level rise will impact Florida's agricultural lands over the coming decades.
The Current State of Florida Agriculture
According to the report, approximately 12 million acres – close to a third of Florida's 36.6 million acres of land – is currently in agriculture. This includes:
Grazing land (primarily ranches): 4.9 million acres (40% of agricultural land)
Silviculture (forestry): 4.5 million acres (37%)
Other agriculture (row crops, citrus, vegetables, nurseries): 2.6 million acres (22%)
Agriculture contributes significantly to Florida's economy. The University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Science (IFAS) reports that in 2019, agriculture, natural resource, and food industries generated $106 billion in sales and provided nearly 1.3 million jobs.
Two Possible Futures
The report examines two potential scenarios for Florida's agricultural land by 2040 and 2070:
Sprawl Scenario
This scenario assumes current patterns of development will continue, and that conservation lands are open for development. Under this scenario:
By 2040: Approximately 523,000 acres of agricultural land lost to development
By 2070: More than 2.2 million acres of agricultural land lost to development
By 2070: 1.2 million acres lost in the Florida Wildlife Corridor
Conservation Scenario
This alternative scenario assumes priority natural lands will be protected from development, and future development will be more compact. Compared to the Sprawl Scenario, this would result in:
2.4 million more acres of proposed protected agricultural land
By 2040: 270,000 fewer acres of developed land (saving about 4%)
By 2070: 1.3 million fewer acres of developed land (saving about 14%)
More Than Just Food Production
Florida's agricultural lands provide much more than economic value. They deliver crucial ecosystem services including:
Water supply and quality protection: Approximately 1.3 million acres of significant surface waters are on agricultural land
Flood control: About 3.4 million acres of Florida's agricultural land is in floodplains
Wildlife habitat: Agricultural lands overlap with critical habitat for Florida panthers, black bears, and other rare species
Climate resilience: About 10.7 million acres (86%) of Florida's agricultural land could play a significant role in supporting climate resilience
The Way Forward
The report offers several recommendations to preserve Florida's agricultural lands:
Robust funding: Maintain full funding for the Florida Forever and Rural and Family Lands Protection programs (at least $250 million per year for each program)
Sound community planning: Develop local land conservation plans that protect priority lands and minimize fragmentation
Science-based decision-making: Continue research on identifying critical lands and waters that are important to protect
Market-based solutions: Develop mechanisms to incentivize ecosystem services protection
Why This Matters
As the report concludes: "Once agricultural land is converted to asphalt and rooftops, there is no turning back." Protecting agricultural land ensures Florida's continued economic prosperity, food security, and essential ecosystem services for future generations.
For more information on this study and to read the whole thing, visit this page.
Take Action!
The Indian River Lagoon National Estuary Program (IRLNEP) is one of 28 vital NEPs designated by Congress and administered by the EPA to restore and protect our nation's most significant estuaries. These non-regulatory programs deliver remarkable results—leveraging $17 in investments for every federal dollar while supporting clean water, economic stability, and infrastructure resilience in coastal communities.
Our local NEP has made tremendous contributions to our region's environmental health and economic vitality. We urge you to sign the National Estuary Program Support Letter by the March 31, 2025 deadline to help demonstrate to Congress the critical importance of these programs.
Your signature will reinforce the essential role NEPs play in ensuring clean water, strengthening infrastructure and biodiversity, and driving economic growth in our coastal communities. Please visit [insert form link here] to add your name to this important initiative. This is not considered lobbying as the letter makes no specific funding or policy requests.
Thank You for Joining Us to Learn About Our Lagoon!
A big thank you to Dr. John Trefry, Professor Emeritus at FIT, for sharing his expertise and insight during our Lunch and Learn event, "What's Running Amuck in Our Lagoon?" His engaging presentation gave us a clearer understanding of the challenges facing the Indian River Lagoon—and what we can do to help.
We’re also incredibly grateful to everyone who joined us at the Vero Beach Country Club. Your interest, questions, and support made the event a success. Events like this show how much our community cares about clean water and a healthy environment.
Check out some photos from the day—we loved seeing so many passionate neighbors come together!
Our Lunch and Learn events cost $25-35 to participate and take place in January, February, and March each year. We look forward to seeing you at our luncheons next season!
Florida DEP state park whistleblower James Gaddis gets Audubon award (TCPalm) - After being fired for leaking secret plans to develop Florida state parks with golf courses and other amenities, whistleblower James Gaddis was honored by the Pelican Island Audubon Society and received over $250,000 in public donations, which he’s now using to start a conservation-focused mapmaking business.
Real estate: Home sale price Stuart, Vero Beach, Fort Pierce, PSL (TCPalm) - Despite rising mortgage rates, February saw increases in home prices, sales, and listings across the Treasure Coast, with growing inventory nudging the market toward favoring buyers.
Changing Your Botanical Blueprint for Spring (Vero Beach Magazine) - Focusing on container gardening to balance beauty, sustainability, and time constraints, a Vero Beach gardener prepares for spring by using drought-tolerant, wildlife-friendly plants in strategically placed pots to support birds, bees, and butterflies.
Could slower Treasure Coast real estate market mark a trend? | Opinion (TCPalm) - A recent decline in home prices in the Sebastian-Vero Beach area raises questions about whether Florida's perpetual growth model is sustainable, suggesting that a future with slower development and stricter zoning adherence could reshape the Treasure Coast's political and economic landscape.
Oslo Road interchange on Interstate 95 to develop in the future-vero (TCPalm) - Indian River County is hosting six public workshops to gather residents' input on future development near the upcoming $96 million I-95 interchange at Oslo Road, with options ranging from town centers and public spaces to themes like agritourism and affordable housing. See also, the opinion piece by Larry Reisman here.
Residents shout down new A1A sidewalk, bike lane plans (Vero News) - South Beach residents fiercely opposed FDOT’s $11 million plan to add a second sidewalk and bike lanes along A1A, criticizing the project as unnecessary, unsafe, and a misuse of funds, while demanding improvements to existing infrastructure instead.
Florida's Feathered Debate: Is It Time for a New State Bird?
Do you know what the state bird of Florida is? The answer may surprise you. It's currently the Mockingbird, which is a lovely bird with impressive vocal talents, but there's a grassroots movement gaining momentum to change the state bird to the flamingo.
This proposal is actually moving through the Florida legislature right now. A bill filed by Florida Keys State Rep. Jim Mooney would designate the flamingo as the state bird, replacing the mockingbird, which has held the title since 1927. The bill also proposes making the scrub-jay the state songbird.
While it might seem like a trivial matter compared to the pressing issues facing Florida today, state symbols carry meaningful weight in shaping a region's identity and character. They become shorthand for how residents see themselves and how others perceive the state.
Proponents of the change point out that Florida currently shares its state bird with five other states. As FWC Chairman Rodney Barreto put it, "I've got to believe we can find a bird that is different from five other states." Many supporters also note that most people already associate the flamingo with Florida anyway. The iconic pink bird appears on countless tourism souvenirs, promotional materials, yard decorations, and even state lottery tickets.
The flamingo also represents a conservation success story. Once hunted nearly to extinction for their vibrant feathers, flamingos are now recognized as native to Florida and have slowly begun returning to the state's wetlands.
On the other hand, some traditionalists question whether changing a nearly century-old symbol is necessary. The mockingbird has represented Florida since 1927, and its adaptability and vocal talents could be seen as reflecting the diverse, expressive character of Florida residents.
It's fair to ask: Is this the kind of issue our legislators should be spending time on when Florida faces serious challenges like affordable housing, environmental threats, and infrastructure needs? But perhaps these symbolic gestures serve a purpose too – bringing communities together around shared identity and pride in what makes Florida unique.
What do you think? Is it time for Florida to embrace the flamingo as its official state bird? Do you have a better idea for what bird should represent us? (I've heard very good arguments for the Spoonbill!) Or should tradition prevail with the mockingbird continuing to represent the Sunshine State?
SeaWorld Orlando Reaches Historic Milestone with 1,000th Manatee Rescue, Reinforcing Decades of Dedication to Animal Rescue, Rehabilitation and Return (PR Newswire) - SeaWorld Orlando has rescued its 1,000th manatee, marking a major milestone in nearly five decades of marine conservation work focused on rescuing, rehabilitating, and returning vulnerable manatees to the wild.
SUGAR SUED: Florida Crystals target of class-action suit claiming company misleads on climate change (VoteWater.org) - A class-action lawsuit accuses Florida Crystals of misleading consumers by promoting its sugar as environmentally friendly while continuing harmful preharvest burning practices that contribute to pollution and climate change.
FWC seeks public comment on rules for invasive iguanas, tegu lizards (TCPalm) - Over 1,500 invasive tegu lizards have been reported in St. Lucie County, where they pose a serious threat to native wildlife like alligator eggs and gopher tortoises, prompting increased trapping efforts and upcoming public meetings on new regulatory measures.
50 grassroots conservatives visit Capitol Hill to support clean energy tax credits (Citizens' Climate Lobby) - Fifty grassroots conservatives met with 47 Republican offices on Capitol Hill to advocate for preserving clean energy tax credits, emphasizing their economic benefits and bipartisan appeal during Citizens’ Climate Lobby’s annual leadership conference.
Renewable energy beats fossil fuels on cost - (Canary Media) - Contrary to claims that clean energy raises costs and weakens grid stability, multiple analyses show that wind and solar reduce power bills, create jobs, and improve public health—benefits now at risk if clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act are repealed.
How to eliminate carbon emissions from world’s buildings - (Canary Media) - Decarbonizing buildings worldwide requires a mix of heat pump adoption, flexible electricity demand, clean construction materials, and strong policy incentives and mandates, all phased in strategically to avoid overwhelming energy grids and economic systems.
You rely on this agency’s data for weather and climate forecasts. DOGE is decimating its workforce.(Grist) - Massive layoffs and facility closures at NOAA, driven by the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency, are severely disrupting critical climate research, weather forecasting, and marine ecosystem monitoring—threatening public safety and scientific progress nationwide.
Florida's Continued Growth: Navigating Uncertain Waters Ahead
In the top article in this newsletter, we highlighted Florida's potential to develop its ag lands. However, we wanted to highlight that with multiple metropolitan areas ranking among the nation's fastest-growing regions, there is a lot of reason to be concerned. While this growth trajectory shows little sign of immediate reversal, significant challenges and uncertainties raise questions about its sustainability and social impact in the coming years.
Beyond the Impressive Numbers
The statistics include—Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach gaining 123,471 residents and Orlando adding nearly 76,000 people between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024—reflect extraordinary growth that brings both opportunities and mounting pressures. These numbers represent real people competing for limited housing, infrastructure capacity, and natural resources.
Infrastructure Struggling to Keep Pace
Despite increased investment, Florida's infrastructure continues to strain under the weight of rapid population growth. Traffic congestion has worsened in all major metropolitan areas, with average commute times increasing over the past years.  We've all noticed how much worse the traffic is around Indian River County this season!
Water management systems face particular challenges, as saltwater intrusion threatens coastal aquifers and development pressures endanger sensitive watersheds. Environmental scientists warn that current water management approaches may be insufficient to meet future demands while protecting ecological resources.
We're essentially conducting a massive experiment with our natural systems. The pace of development has outstripped our ability to fully understand its long-term ecological impacts and this will show more and more in the coming years.
Climate Vulnerability Amplified
Florida's population growth coincides with increasing climate vulnerability. Insurance markets have destabilized, with multiple carriers withdrawing from the state and remaining providers raising premiums.
The state's property insurance crisis threatens both individual homeowners and broader economic stability, as insurance costs consume an ever-larger portion of household budgets. Some climate scientists question the wisdom of concentrating population growth in low-lying coastal areas facing increased flooding and hurricane risks.
Uncertain Political Landscape
The state and federal immigration policies could also create significant uncertainty for demographic projections. Recent enforcement measures have already affected labor markets, particularly in construction, agriculture, and hospitality sectors that have traditionally relied on immigrant workers.
Labor shortages in these industries could paradoxically slow construction of needed housing and infrastructure, creating a compounding effect on growth-related challenges.
Looking Forward with Caution
While some maintain optimistic growth projections, some demographers have begun revising their forecasts. Early indicators of moderation that weren't present a year ago are visible. Rising costs, climate concerns, and infrastructure limitations are beginning to influence migration patterns.
As Florida navigates its growth trajectory, policymakers face difficult choices about how to address mounting challenges while maintaining economic vitality. The communities most likely to thrive will be those that honestly confront these challenges rather than assuming past growth patterns will continue indefinitely.
The coming years will reveal whether Florida can transform its rapid population growth into sustainable development—or whether unchecked expansion will ultimately undermine the very qualities that have made the state so attractive.
The EPA is rolling back environmental regulation, but most Americans support climate policies, study finds (Yale Program on Climate Change Communication) - As the EPA rolls back 31 environmental regulations under Administrator Lee Zeldin, a national Yale study reveals strong public support for climate action, with majorities favoring clean energy, carbon regulation, and renewable energy research across all U.S. states and counties.
Grass-Fed Beef No Better for Climate Than Industrial Beef, Study Finds (Environmental News Network) - Grazing cattle emit at least as much greenhouse gas as feedlot-raised cattle because their slower growth and lower meat yield result in higher emissions per unit of beef produced.
Imperiled in the Wild, Many Plants May Survive Only in Gardens - (Environmental News Network) - With wild populations of critically endangered plants like Australia’s Wollemi pine under constant threat, conservationists increasingly rely on botanical gardens and off-site cultivation to ensure these species survive beyond their fragile native habitats.
World Experienced 152 Unprecedented Climate Events in 2024: WMO Report (EcoWatch) - The WMO’s 2024 climate report documents a record 152 unprecedented extreme weather events, soaring global temperatures, accelerating sea level rise, and record ice and glacier losses—signaling urgent, potentially irreversible climate impacts and the critical need for faster global action.
Microplastic within humans now a health crisis: Interview with ‘Plastic People’ filmmakers (Mongabay) - The documentary Plastic People exposes the widespread infiltration of microplastics into human bodies—found in brains, placentas, and organs—framing plastic pollution as a growing global health crisis and urging both personal action and international policy change to curb its toxic toll.
Climate Change Is the Backdrop to Our Lives, But It’s Missing in Movies (Inside Climate News) - A new study reveals that only 13 percent of top films from the past decade mention climate change, prompting calls for more on-screen representation of the crisis to reflect its real-world impact and influence public awareness and action.
U.S. Honeybee Deaths Reach Record High: Survey (EcoWatch) - U.S. honeybee colonies suffered record winter losses averaging 62 percent, threatening agricultural pollination and pushing many beekeeping businesses toward financial collapse, according to a new survey by Project Apis m.
